One of the nation’s major agribusinesses, Rural Bank, predicts more favourable conditions for Queensland producers following an increase in the state’s rainfall expectancy at the beginning of 2025.
Thanks to recent rainfall spread across the state, Rural Bank’s 2025 Agricultural Outlook Report highlights a positive outlook for Queensland cattle producers, resulting in increased beef production and strong export demand.
However, the high demand for production and exports may lead to slightly lower market prices.
The report states that, if this scenario unfolds, prices in the state could lift marginally.
Still, the well-above-average levels of cattle available on the market are more likely to exert downward pressure on prices.
“The forecast conditions also appear favourable for producers, with most of the state expected to receive median rainfall or higher,” the report reads.
“Slaughter rates are forecast to increase throughout the first half of next year, with strong local supply on markets.”
Rural Bank’s senior manager of industry affairs, Neil Burgess, said there is an overall positive outlook for Queensland producers at the start of next year.
“Following this, elevated destocking rates are expected, with demand set to remain firm as the reduction in US supply favours Australian producers,” he said.
“Cattle prices will ease marginally across the first half of 2025 due to high levels of supply.
“However, the increase in beef production and continuing strong export demand provides a positive outlook for producers, even with softer pricing.”
Despite Queensland’s promising start to the new year, recent studies in Rabobank Australia’s Global Research Report show that four of the world’s largest beef-producing nations—the US, Brazil, China, and Europe—are expected to lead the first reduction in global beef supply since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Report lead author and RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst, Angus Gidley-Baird, said global beef production has the potential to change dramatically if weather patterns shift.
“US producers are waiting for more dependable precipitation to rebuild herds, while Brazilian production is being slowed by rain delaying the supply of cattle fattened on pasture,” he said.
The report notes that Australia has maintained relatively adequate rainfall over the past few years.
However, the threat of drier conditions could lead to increased production as producers are forced to turn off more stock.
Mr Gidley-Baird added that weather forecasts for 2025 suggest favourable conditions.
“The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation models are predicting La Niña weather conditions to persist into the first quarter of 2025, before transitioning to a more neutral pattern by mid-year,” he said.
“This will support Australian beef production. Furthermore, year-on-year declines in US beef production will remain relatively small, as the rebuilding of the US cow herd continues to be delayed by slower replacement heifer development.”
